| When betting baseball is it better to bet overs
or unders, and does one side have an advantage? Though the baseball
season is only but a month old, we have answered this inquiry 4
times already so we decided to post our opinion and response on
the website for all to read.
In our opinion, over the long term, unders have a small edge on
overs. It is impossible to determine that exact edge but no matter
how small that edge may be one must realize that unders should occur
with greater frequency than overs.
We all now that the public prefers betting the over for a couple
of reasons. First reason being they are never out of the game until
it is over. The score could be 1-0 in the night inning of a game
and theoretically there is still a chance the game could go over
the total. Under players are normally sweating out each intense
moment of the game, while over players have a little more leeway
when it comes to a big moment in the game.
What this translates to is more action wagered on overs than unders
since players are more comfortable with this type of play. With
more straight bets and more parlays booked to the over than the
under, sportsbooks will skew lines toward the over side making players
pay a premium while giving value to the under.
Another factor bettors look at when determining over/unders is
average runs scored and allowed per game. What bettors don’t
calculate is that most teams will play a number of high scoring
games per season. In those games anywhere from 12-20 runs can be
scored, all of which are way over the league average in terms of
runs scored per game. It is impossible to score 8 or more runs under
the league average but scoring over 8 runs or more over the league
average can happen occasionally. Even the games where 1-3 runs are
scored under the league average don’t measure up to the games
where 1-3 runs scored over the league average. These factors can
throw off team totals to the high side thus giving more value to
the under once again. When evaluating team totals it is smart to
look at the median average of each teams offensive and defensive
output.
These are just a couple of things to consider when you are looking
at totals and our opinion as to why we always lean under. We are
not saying that when 2 teams hook up they won’t score a ton
of runs and soar over the total, just that the value is normally
with the under. When betting overs, remember to pick your spots
and take your edges when you can.
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