You heard us mention situational handicapping
in our article about how our NFL & College handicappers make
their weekly predictions. Today we are going to take that one step
further and explain another great angle you can add to your College
football handicapping repertoire.
When College football handicapping, it is important to know that
teams play on different levels each week. One of the biggest keys
to winning handicapping is being able to calculate when a team is
on a high or low note. Whether a team is playing at a high or low
level can dramatically change the dynamic of a game and is pertinent
information you must account for.
The most common aspect you hear about is a letdown. Now we like
to think there are 2 types of great letdowns situations in NCAA
football. The first normally occurs after the week of a big game.
It is impossible for a team to play at its peak level every week,
and teams will often put more effort in meaningful games than others.
If a couple of top 10 teams battle it out one week, it is usually
a good bet to go against the winner the following week. The winner
would have just gone through a grueling battle with a top opponent,
and usually there is little left in the tank for next weeks opponent.
Meanwhile their opponent would likely be fired up knowing they are
taking on one of the best teams in the country.
The other form of a letdown we love to exploit is betting against
a team that pulls a major upset the week before. If a team pulls
off a game that they were not supposed to win the week before, chances
are they are primed for a let down. Just like we mentioned before
the winning team has had to go though a grueling battle and may
not be fully recovered mentally and physically. Not only did this
team have to come up with an extraordinary effort just to get the
victory, but you can anticipate that the beginning of this week
was spent celebrating their big upset. You can bet the coach will
have a hard time getting these kids off of cloud nine to prepare
for this weeks opponent. In addition this upset will also wake up
this weeks opponent, so you can be assured they will not take the
team lightly.
The letdown is just one example of situational handicapping and
how emotion can play into a football game. The next time you do
your College football handicapping, figure out when teams are playing
up or are due for a let down. Doing so can deliver many winners
as well as avoid a “let down” to your bankroll.
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